Who will win 2026 Georgia Secretary of State Republican primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Who will win 2026 Georgia Secretary of State Republican primary?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $50 in 24-hour volume against $1,105 open interest, creating a wide 8¢ spread and an unusually high 1030.9% implied yield on the Yes side that likely reflects thin order book conditions rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $50 in 24-hour volume against $1,105 open interest, creating a wide 8¢ spread and an unusually high 1030.9% implied yield on the Yes side that likely reflects thin order book conditions rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity. The 23¢ price implies Gabriel Sterling has just a 23% chance of winning the Republican primary, though the flat 7-day price action suggests limited new information flow into this low-conviction market. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate 6 cliff risk index, traders should be cautious of the wide bid-ask spread and potential slippage on position entry or exit.
Resolution rules
If Gabriel Sterling wins 2026 Georgia Secretary of State Republican primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGASOSR-26-GSTE yes 100