Will the gold close price be above 4451.99 USD/t.oz on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will the gold close price be above 4451.99 USD/t.oz on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 28¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price is likely a stale quote rather than a genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 28¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price is likely a stale quote rather than a genuine market consensus. The astronomical implied yields (16,675% on the No side) and realized volatility of 1,982% indicate severe pricing dysfunction, with the market potentially mispriced given gold's historical trading range around $2,300-2,500/t.oz, making a $4,451.99 close highly improbable. With only 5 days to expiration and near-zero liquidity, this contract appears abandoned and should be treated with extreme caution for any trading decisions.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 4451.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOLDW-26APR2417-T4451.99 yes 100