Will William Tong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Connecticut?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will William Tong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Connecticut?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market is essentially illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of just $70, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market is essentially illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of just $70, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The extreme implied yield of 5,887.8% on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine opportunity, and the flat 5¢ spread masks the difficulty of actually executing trades at these levels. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days combined with the 200-day timeframe and moderate cliff risk score of 32 suggest this market lacks sufficient liquidity to serve as a meaningful prediction mechanism for the 2026 Connecticut Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
Resolution rules
If William Tong wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Connecticut Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVCTNOMD-26-WTON yes 100