Will Vicki Schmidt be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ty Masterson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas
Will Ty Masterson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?: Ty Masterson
KXGOVKSNOMR-26-TM
Cluster 2
Will Philip Sarnecki be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas
Will Philip Sarnecki be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?: Philip Sarnecki
KXGOVKSNOMR-26-PS
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Vicki Schmidt wins the Republican primary for Kansas governor. At 43%, the market indicates she is a significant contender but faces meaningful competition. Schmidt, a former state legislator and current State Board of Education member, brings relevant political experience, though the Kansas Republican primary remains competitive. The current probability reflects uncertainty about primary voter preferences and whether other candidates might generate stronger momentum. The main drivers would be campaign fundraising levels, endorsements from state party establishment figures, and polling data closer to the primary election date. The Republican primary election in Kansas will ultimately resolve this contract, likely occurring in August 2026, making candidate activity and campaign developments over the coming months critical to watch.
- ›Vicki Schmidt's prior legislative service and current State Board of Education position represent established political credentials within Kansas Republican circles
- ›Primary election timing (August 2026) means candidate field composition, endorsements, and fundraising through mid-2026 will significantly influence outcomes
- ›Competing Republican candidates' campaign viability, name recognition, and resource levels directly impact Schmidt's path to the nomination
- ›Turnout patterns and geographic voting preferences in Kansas Republican primaries have historically varied, affecting how establishment candidates perform relative to insurgent challengers
- ›No major scandal or campaign-altering event appears priced into the 43% probability, suggesting modest confidence in Schmidt's nomination chances
What moved the line
- Jun 20Ty Masterson↓4pp76→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Ty Masterson↑3pp72→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Philip Sarnecki↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (40% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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