Will Ty Masterson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?
Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will Ty Masterson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (1364% realized vol) with a notable 28¢ price surge over seven days (18¢ to 46¢), suggesting recent positive news for Masterson's candidacy, though the 6¢ cross-venue gap favoring Kalshi indicates some pricing inefficiency.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (1364% realized vol) with a notable 28¢ price surge over seven days (18¢ to 46¢), suggesting recent positive news for Masterson's candidacy, though the 6¢ cross-venue gap favoring Kalshi indicates some pricing inefficiency. The 187% risk-adjusted implied yield reflects the binary nature and uncertainty, but liquidity remains thin at $7.5k open interest with a 7¢ spread, making this suitable only for conviction traders willing to accept execution risk ahead of the November 2026 nomination deadline.
Also on polymarket at 44¢(Δ +10¢)
Resolution rules
If Ty Masterson wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Kansas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVKSNOMR-26-TM yes 100