Will Toby Doeden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Toby Doeden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The 37¢ price reflects modest conviction in Doeden's nomination chances with over 200 days until resolution, though the extremely high implied yield of 324% on the Yes side signals either significant mispricing or elevated uncertainty about the outcome.
Analysis
The 37¢ price reflects modest conviction in Doeden's nomination chances with over 200 days until resolution, though the extremely high implied yield of 324% on the Yes side signals either significant mispricing or elevated uncertainty about the outcome. Volume is thin at $46.58 over 24 hours with $10K open interest, suggesting limited liquidity and potential for sharp moves as the nomination process develops. The realized volatility of 306% and vol ratio of 1.73 indicate this market has experienced substantial price swings, likely driven by campaign developments or polling shifts in the South Dakota gubernatorial race.
Also on polymarket at 33¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
If Toby Doeden wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 South Dakota Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXGOVSDNOMR-26-TDOE yes 100