Will Jon Hansen be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Toby Doeden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota
Will Toby Doeden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota?: Toby Doeden
KXGOVSDNOMR-26-TDOE
Cluster 2
Will Larry Rhoden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota
Will Larry Rhoden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota?: Larry Rhoden
KXGOVSDNOMR-26-LRHO
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Jon Hansen will secure the Republican Party's nomination for South Dakota Governor in the 2026 election cycle. At 32%, markets suggest Hansen faces meaningful competition for the nomination, though he remains a plausible contender. The probability is likely influenced by his political profile, existing relationships within South Dakota Republican circles, and any primary challengers who have emerged. Key factors driving the level include the strength and number of rival candidates, Hansen's fundraising and endorsement trajectory, and organizational capacity in early voting regions. The Republican primary election date will serve as the critical resolution point, clarifying which candidate the party base ultimately selects. Prior to that vote, candidate announcements, polling data releases, and endorsements from party leadership will provide incremental information about nomination chances.
- ›Number and political viability of competing Republican primary candidates for the South Dakota governorship
- ›Jon Hansen's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position relative to primary opponents
- ›Endorsements from South Dakota Republican Party leadership, current elected officials, and prominent state figures
- ›Results from any public polling data or primary straw polls conducted among South Dakota Republican voters
- ›Official Republican primary election date and Hansen's performance relative to expectations as that date approaches
What moved the line
- Jun 22Larry Rhoden↓14pp60→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Toby Doeden↑10pp41→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Larry Rhoden↑6pp54→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Toby Doeden↓3pp51→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Larry Rhoden↑3pp46→49¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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