Will the US government be shut down for at least 130 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will the US government be shut down for at least 130 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 15¢, implying only a 15% probability that a single shutdown will last 130+ consecutive days during the 10.5-month window—a duration that would be historically unprecedented (the longest on record is 35 days in 2018-2019).
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 15¢, implying only a 15% probability that a single shutdown will last 130+ consecutive days during the 10.5-month window—a duration that would be historically unprecedented (the longest on record is 35 days in 2018-2019). The asymmetric implied yield of 1137% on the Yes side versus 17.4% on the No side, combined with modest 24-hour volume of $6,951 and a 2¢ spread, suggests limited liquidity and strong market consensus that such an extended shutdown is implausible. With 260 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1034%, this appears to be a tail-risk contract where the pricing may reflect both the extreme unlikelihood of the event and potential mispricing due to thin trading.
Resolution rules
If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 130 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G130 yes 100