Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely high probability (78%) that a shutdown will last at least 80 days, yet the No side offers a stunning 361.5% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or that traders heavily doubt such an extended shutdown will occur.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely high probability (78%) that a shutdown will last at least 80 days, yet the No side offers a stunning 361.5% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or that traders heavily doubt such an extended shutdown will occur. The sharp 36-cent price surge over 7 days combined with a 4.43 volatility ratio and 355% realized volatility indicates acute uncertainty and recent information arrival, despite the market's ostensibly confident Yes lean. The thin $115k open interest and modest $19.3k daily volume raise liquidity concerns for a market with 260 days to expiry, making the extreme yield differential potentially unreliable as a true probability signal.
Resolution rules
If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 80 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G80 yes 100