Will the US government be shut down for at least 85 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that Will the US government be shut down for at least 85 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 69% probability of an 85+ day shutdown, but the asymmetric yield profile (298.7% for No vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 69% probability of an 85+ day shutdown, but the asymmetric yield profile (298.7% for No vs. 66.2% for Yes) suggests significant tail risk skew favoring the No side despite the high Yes price. The extreme realized volatility of 513% and dramatic 7-day rally from 37¢ to 68¢ indicate recent information arrival (1.9/h) has sharply repriced shutdown risk upward, though moderate liquidity ($20.4k 24h volume) and a 5.11 vol ratio warrant caution on whether this repricing will hold through the 260-day expiry.
Resolution rules
If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 85 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G85 yes 100