How high will CPI get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in a 91% probability that CPI will exceed 3.3% at some point during 2026, with the contract trading at 91¢ and showing a sharp 7-day rally from 88¢ to 93¢.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 91% probability that CPI will exceed 3.3% at some point during 2026, with the contract trading at 91¢ and showing a sharp 7-day rally from 88¢ to 93¢. The extreme 1,868% implied yield on the No side combined with minimal 24-hour volume ($0) and thin open interest ($1,768) suggests very low liquidity and potentially distorted pricing, making this market vulnerable to sudden repricing. With 260 days to expiry and a wide 7¢ spread, the market appears to be pricing in high confidence that inflation will remain above the 3.3% threshold at least once during the year, though the lack of recent trading activity warrants caution about the reliability of this price signal.
Resolution rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 3.3% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T3.3 yes 100