How high will CPI get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) that CPI will exceed 3.4% at some point during 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and only $600 in open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) that CPI will exceed 3.4% at some point during 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and only $600 in open interest. The asymmetric implied yields—17.4% for Yes versus 1137.7% for No—combined with an 8/10 cliff risk index suggests the market may be mispriced or illiquid, as the No side offers an implausibly high return that doesn't align with the consensus view. With 260 days to expiry and a 7-cent spread, this appears to be a dead market where the extreme Yes pricing reflects either stale information or insufficient liquidity to discover true fair value.
Resolution rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 3.4% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T3.4 yes 100