What is the current probability for "How high will CPI get this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 82¢ (82% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How high will CPI get this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 31.5% and 652.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How high will CPI get this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How high will CPI get this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 11¢ spread despite modest $6.5k open interest, making the 93¢ price potentially unreliable for real conviction.

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82¢

Bid/Ask 82/89¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $7,042.07·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T3.5

7-day price690 snapshots · 10 regime

91¢82¢ current

Apr 845¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 11¢ spread despite modest $6.5k open interest, making the 93¢ price potentially unreliable for real conviction. The dramatic 686.6% implied yield on the "No" side suggests severe mispricing or that traders view sub-3.5% CPI as extraordinarily unlikely, though the recent 6¢ price decline over seven days indicates some erosion of that consensus. With 260 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 5, this market appears to be pricing in near-certainty of above-3.5% inflation in 2026, which warrants skepticism given the thin trading activity and wide bid-ask gap.

Resolution rules

If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 3.5% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 31.5%

IY (No) 652.8%

Adj IY 653%

CRI 5

RV 258%

VR 4.55

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	31.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	652.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	653%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	258%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.55	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:07 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T3.5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →