How high will CPI get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in an 89% probability that CPI will exceed 3.7% at some point during 2026, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $1,052 open interest suggest severe illiquidity that may not reflect true market consensus.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an 89% probability that CPI will exceed 3.7% at some point during 2026, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $1,052 open interest suggest severe illiquidity that may not reflect true market consensus. The sharp 8-cent price decline over seven days (81¢ to 73¢) combined with an extreme 380% implied yield on the "No" side indicates recent skepticism about elevated inflation, though the 11-cent spread and moderate cliff risk (3/10) suggest the market hasn't fully repriced yet. With 260 days to expiry, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the high probability may be artificially inflated due to thin trading rather than fundamental inflation expectations.
Resolution rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 3.7% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T3.7 yes 100