How high will CPI get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,034 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the symmetric 140.6% implied yield on both sides.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,034 open interest, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the symmetric 140.6% implied yield on both sides. The 7-day price collapse from 66¢ to 50¢ combined with 465% realized volatility and a 3.67 vol ratio suggests significant recent information arrival (0.9 reports per hour), though the neutral regime score indicates uncertainty about directional conviction. With 260 days to expiration and a 4¢ spread, traders should be cautious about execution slippage on what appears to be a thinly-traded contract with potentially stale pricing.
Resolution rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.0% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.0 yes 100