How high will CPI get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,000 open interest, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 11¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,000 open interest, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 11¢ spread. The 738% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for tail risk, though the neutral regime score indicates no obvious macro catalyst justifying such a premium. The sharp 7-day rally from 2¢ to 16¢ (700% move) combined with 260 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 5 warrants caution, as thin markets can experience violent repricing on minimal volume.
Resolution rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.4% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.4 yes 100