How high will CPI get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable despite the eye-catching 864% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable despite the eye-catching 864% implied yield on the Yes side. The 7-day price movement from 2¢ to 14¢ suggests recent volatility in a thinly-traded contract, and the 6¢ spread is substantial relative to the current price. With 260 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market is pricing in only a 13% probability that CPI will exceed 4.5% at any point during 2026, which appears aggressive given current inflation dynamics and the high cliff risk index of 6.
Resolution rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.5% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.5 yes 100