Apr 2026 temperature increase?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Apr 2026 temperature increase?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $201 open interest, making the 6¢ spread and extreme 23,842% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true probability.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $201 open interest, making the 6¢ spread and extreme 23,842% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true probability. The 5¢ price implies only a 5% chance of April 2026 temperatures staying below 1.03 on the Land Ocean-Temperature Index, which appears pessimistic given recent climate trends, though the stagnant 7-day price action suggests limited conviction from traders. With just 29 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this market carries significant execution risk and should be approached cautiously given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Apr 2026 is below 1.03, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHMONTHRANGE-26APR-T1.03 yes 100