Apr 2026 temperature increase?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Apr 2026 temperature increase?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of thin prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite a $299.57 open interest and a wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of thin prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite a $299.57 open interest and a wide 6¢ spread. The price has collapsed 57% over seven days (from 14¢ to 6¢), suggesting either new information about April 2026 temperatures or position unwinding, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional bias in broader market conditions. The astronomical 21,457% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag for mispricing rather than genuine opportunity—with only 27 days to expiry and such thin liquidity, the market likely lacks sufficient participants to price the 1.30°C threshold accurately.
Resolution rules
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Apr 2026 is above 1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHMONTHRANGE-26APR-T1.30 yes 100