Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with Republicans priced at just 11¢ despite 566 days until expiry, implying an 11% win probability that appears disconnected from historical midterm patterns where the party out of power typically gains House seats. The 580.8% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 7.2% No yield, suggesting either deep skepticism about Republican performance or significant mispricing, though the thin $42.72 daily volume and modest $12,716 open interest raise liquidity concerns that could exacerbate any correction. The recent price movement from 8¢ to 10¢ and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 9 warrant caution, as the market may be vulnerable to sharp repricing as we approach the 2026 midterms.

Resolution rules

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Edges (3)

Trade