Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 23¢ (23% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 230.8% and 18.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	230.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	115%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	9.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

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