Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,246.94 open interest, making the 45¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,246.94 open interest, making the 45¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The implied yield of 1,200.7% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—a classic sign of thin markets where small positions create outsized percentage returns—while the 6¢ spread represents a 13% bid-ask gap that further signals difficulty in execution. With 46 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the recent 5¢ price rise (35¢ to 40¢ over 7 days) may reflect shifting legislative momentum, but the lack of trading activity makes it unclear whether this reflects genuine probability changes or just noise in an abandoned market.
Resolution rules
If legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) has become law before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXICEERO-26MAR-JUN01 yes 100