Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4558.6% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 3¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of the S&P 500 closing in the 6000-6199.99 range by end-2026—a level only ~8% above current prices that represents a modest two-year return.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4558.6% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 3¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of the S&P 500 closing in the 6000-6199.99 range by end-2026—a level only ~8% above current prices that represents a modest two-year return. The substantial $58,727 open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread indicates trapped liquidity with no recent price discovery, raising questions about whether this reflects genuine consensus or stale positioning. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, the market carries meaningful tail risk, though the extreme yield differential suggests contrarian value for informed traders willing to take the Yes side.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 6000-6199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6100 yes 100