Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market prices an extremely narrow 200-point band (7000-7199.99) on the S&P 500 at just 8¢, implying only an 8% probability despite the index currently trading near 5,900—requiring roughly 19-24% appreciation over 259 days.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely narrow 200-point band (7000-7199.99) on the S&P 500 at just 8¢, implying only an 8% probability despite the index currently trading near 5,900—requiring roughly 19-24% appreciation over 259 days. The asymmetric implied yields (1621.6% for Yes vs 12.3% for No) signal severe mispricing or reflect the market's view that landing in this specific range is highly unlikely, though the modest $696.77 daily volume and $65,811.91 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify volatility. The recent price decline from 9¢ to 8¢ and moderate cliff risk index of 12 suggest some uncertainty around the precise resolution mechanics, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable two-sided interest.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 7000-7199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7100 yes 100