Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing an 8% probability that the S&P 500 closes in the 7800-7999.99 range on Dec 31, 2026, implying an extreme 1,622% annualized yield for Yes holders despite 259 days to expiry.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 8% probability that the S&P 500 closes in the 7800-7999.99 range on Dec 31, 2026, implying an extreme 1,622% annualized yield for Yes holders despite 259 days to expiry. The extremely asymmetric yield profile (1,622% Yes vs 12.3% No) combined with a realized volatility of 3,887% and volume of just $2,410 suggests this is a low-liquidity tail-risk contract where the price may not reflect true market consensus. The recent doubling from 4¢ to 8¢ over seven days warrants caution, as such moves in illiquid markets can reflect thin order books rather than fundamental repricing.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 7800-7999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7900 yes 100