Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3,384.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of the S&P 500 trading in the 8000-8199.99 range by year-end 2026—a level only about 3.6% above current prices that represents a modest move over 259 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3,384.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of the S&P 500 trading in the 8000-8199.99 range by year-end 2026—a level only about 3.6% above current prices that represents a modest move over 259 days. The sharp tripling in price over seven days (1¢ to 4¢) combined with modest $3,072.91 daily volume and tight $61,728.50 open interest indicates low liquidity that may be constraining price discovery, while the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful tail risk around the Dec 31 expiration. The neutral regime score and 1¢ spread provide little additional conviction, but the asymmetric yield profile (3,384.9% Yes vs. 5.9% No) points to potential value for contrarian traders willing to accept the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 8000-8199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8100 yes 100