Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4645.7% and 4.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4645.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2323%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

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