Will the S&P 500 be below 4000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the S&P 500 be below 4000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing an extremely low probability (3%) that the S&P 500 falls below 4000 by end-2026, implying traders expect roughly 8-10% upside from current levels over 259 days.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low probability (3%) that the S&P 500 falls below 4000 by end-2026, implying traders expect roughly 8-10% upside from current levels over 259 days. The unusually high implied yield of 4558% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity constraints, though the $336k open interest and tight 1¢ spread suggest reasonable depth; notably, the price has declined from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days, indicating modest bearish pressure despite the overall bullish consensus. With a Cliff Risk Index of 32 and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a straightforward directional bet rather than a volatility or tail-risk play, though the extreme Yes-side yield warrants caution about execution costs at scale.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T4000 yes 100