Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. Applied Intuition's IPO probability is priced significantly lower on Kalshi (10¢) than Polymarket (15¢), creating a 5-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests either Kalshi undervaluation or Polymarket overconfidence.
Analysis
Applied Intuition's IPO probability is priced significantly lower on Kalshi (10¢) than Polymarket (15¢), creating a 5-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests either Kalshi undervaluation or Polymarket overconfidence. The extreme 1,033% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the binary nature of IPO timing, but the thin $13 daily volume and wide 4-cent spread indicate low liquidity that could amplify slippage on larger trades. With 259 days to expiry and a 569% realized volatility, this market remains highly speculative, though the recent uptick from 10¢ to 12¢ hints at modest accumulation of bullish conviction.
Resolution rules
If Applied Intuition confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-AINTUITION yes 100