What is the current probability for "Who will IPO before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will IPO before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1650.2% and 12.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will IPO before 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will IPO before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This Celonis IPO market shows a notable 2-cent cross-venue premium on Kalshi (15¢) versus Polymarket (13¢), suggesting slight overpricing on the former despite identical resolution criteria.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 8/12¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $68·OI $6,510.51·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXIPO-26-CELONIS

7-day price9 snapshots · 5 regime

9¢8¢ current

Apr 97¢Apr 11

Analysis

4d ago

This Celonis IPO market shows a notable 2-cent cross-venue premium on Kalshi (15¢) versus Polymarket (13¢), suggesting slight overpricing on the former despite identical resolution criteria. The 1619.5% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high but misleading given the minimal $0 24-hour volume and tight $6,486.51 open interest, indicating illiquidity that inflates theoretical returns. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the 15% probability appears reasonable for a late-stage private company IPO within a ~2-year window, though the wide 3¢ spread reflects the thin market depth.

Resolution rules

If Celonis confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1650.2%

IY (No) 12.5%

Adj IY 825%

CRI 12

Overround 6.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1650.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	825%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.455

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:16 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPO-26-CELONIS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →