Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 5 cents over seven days to 17¢, suggesting reduced conviction that Databricks will go public before year-end 2026.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 5 cents over seven days to 17¢, suggesting reduced conviction that Databricks will go public before year-end 2026. The 746% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the modest 27.1% yield on No, creating an asymmetric risk profile that may appeal to contrarian bettors, though the thin $163.54 daily volume and 2¢ spread indicate low liquidity could amplify price swings. With 257 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 5, the market appears to be pricing in either a delayed IPO timeline or heightened regulatory/market uncertainty around the company's public debut.
Resolution rules
If Databricks confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-DATABRICKS yes 100