Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This Skims IPO market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $1,286 open interest, making the 20-cent price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8-cent spread.
Analysis
This Skims IPO market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $1,286 open interest, making the 20-cent price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8-cent spread. The 563% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and suggests either significant underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market isn't adequately compensating for given the 259-day timeframe. The recent 2-cent price decline over seven days combined with neutral regime conditions indicates limited conviction, and the moderate cliff risk score of 4 suggests event-driven volatility could emerge as the 2027 deadline approaches.
Resolution rules
If Skims confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-SKIMS yes 100