When will Anduril IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an 11% probability of an Anduril IPO by end-2026, but the extreme 1310% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 16¢ spread suggests this is an illiquid, speculative position rather than a consensus view.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 11% probability of an Anduril IPO by end-2026, but the extreme 1310% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 16¢ spread suggests this is an illiquid, speculative position rather than a consensus view. The sharp 450% price jump from 2¢ to 11¢ over seven days indicates recent bullish sentiment, though the modest $1.5K open interest and high cliff risk (8/10) mean this market could be vulnerable to thin liquidity and sudden repricing around news events.
Resolution rules
If Anduril confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-26DEC01 yes 100