When will Anduril IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market is pricing an Anduril IPO as highly unlikely within the 198-day window, with just a 7% implied probability reflected in the 7¢ price.
Analysis
This market is pricing an Anduril IPO as highly unlikely within the 198-day window, with just a 7% implied probability reflected in the 7¢ price. The extreme 2446% implied yield on the Yes side is misleading given the zero 24-hour volume and thin $867 open interest, indicating this is an illiquid contract where the quoted spread may not reflect true execution prices. The neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk suggest no imminent catalysts are priced in, making this primarily a speculative position on an unexpected near-term exit rather than a consensus market view.
Resolution rules
If Anduril confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-26NOV01 yes 100