When will Anduril IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (6%) for Anduril's IPO within 16 months, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 3,420% implied yield—a massive asymmetry that suggests either severe illiquidity or genuine skepticism about near-term public markets access for the defense contractor.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (6%) for Anduril's IPO within 16 months, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 3,420% implied yield—a massive asymmetry that suggests either severe illiquidity or genuine skepticism about near-term public markets access for the defense contractor. With zero 24-hour volume and only $221 in open interest against a 6¢ spread, this is essentially illiquid and likely reflects minimal real conviction, making the headline yield somewhat misleading given the difficulty of actually executing trades at these prices. The neutral regime and moderate cliff risk (16) suggest the market hasn't priced in any specific catalyst, though the long 167-day timeframe leaves room for unexpected acceleration in Anduril's funding trajectory or market conditions.
Resolution rules
If Anduril confirms an IPO before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-26OCT01 yes 100