When will Anduril IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing March 1, 2027. The market is pricing in only a 9% probability of an Anduril IPO by March 2027, yet the implied yield on a Yes resolution reaches an extreme 1,524%—a stark asymmetry suggesting either deep skepticism about near-term IPO likelihood or thin liquidity constraining price discovery.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 9% probability of an Anduril IPO by March 2027, yet the implied yield on a Yes resolution reaches an extreme 1,524%—a stark asymmetry suggesting either deep skepticism about near-term IPO likelihood or thin liquidity constraining price discovery. With zero 24-hour volume and just $2,532 in open interest against an 8¢ spread, this contract lacks meaningful depth, making the headline yield somewhat illusory given execution risk. The modest 6¢-to-7¢ price uptick over seven days and neutral regime score indicate no recent catalyst has shifted market conviction on the defense tech company's public market timeline.
Resolution rules
If Anduril confirms an IPO before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-27MAR01 yes 100