When will AppsFlyer IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $20 open interest, making the 3478.8% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $20 open interest, making the 3478.8% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for pricing. The 9¢ price reflects a very low 9% probability of AppsFlyer IPOing by August 2026, though with 106 days remaining and a wide 9¢ spread, there's substantial uncertainty in the true fair value. The 10 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant binary event risk, indicating this contract could see sharp repricing if AppsFlyer announces IPO plans, making it a speculative position rather than a liquid market.
Resolution rules
If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26AUG01 yes 100