What is the current probability for "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 31¢ (31% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 1, 2026. 223 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1652.2% and 16.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will AppsFlyer IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 1617% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 31¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote.

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31¢

Bid/Ask 9/18¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Dec 1, 2026·223d remaining

KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26DEC01

7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime

11¢9¢ current

Apr 119¢Apr 13

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 1617% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 31¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote. The 9¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the sharp recent decline from 11¢ to 9¢ over seven days indicates either shifting sentiment or thin-market volatility rather than informed repricing. With 228 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 10, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with minimal liquidity to execute meaningful positions.

Resolution rules

If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1652.2%

IY (No) 16.2%

Adj IY 826%

CRI 10

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1652.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	826%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:42 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26DEC01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →