When will AppsFlyer IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This illiquid market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2446% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.9% on the No side, reflecting minimal conviction behind the 9% probability despite an 18-month timeframe.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2446% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.9% on the No side, reflecting minimal conviction behind the 9% probability despite an 18-month timeframe. The zero 24-hour volume and $94 open interest suggest this contract lacks meaningful price discovery, and the recent decline from 7¢ to 9¢ over seven days may simply reflect thin-market noise rather than fundamental repricing. The 13 cliff risk index warrants caution, as binary resolution events can create sharp dislocations near expiry.
Resolution rules
If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26NOV01 yes 100