What is the current probability for "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 1, 2026. 162 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 7270.3% and 7.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will AppsFlyer IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 9¢ spread and only $24 open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine conviction.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 3/11¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $24·Closes Oct 1, 2026·162d remaining

KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26OCT01

7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime

5¢3¢ current

Apr 113¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

This illiquid micro-market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 9¢ spread and only $24 open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine conviction. The implied yield of 7059% on the Yes side is mathematically inflated by the tiny position size and near-zero volume over 24 hours, making it unreliable for serious analysis. The recent price decline from 5¢ to 3¢ over seven days combined with high cliff risk (32) indicates uncertainty about AppsFlyer's IPO timeline, though with 167 days remaining and no recent news catalyst, the low probability appears reasonable absent new developments.

Resolution rules

If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7270.3%

IY (No) 7.0%

Adj IY 3635%

CRI 32

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	7270.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3635%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:43 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26OCT01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →