When will AppsFlyer IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2027. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme asymmetry with a 240.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus 32.9% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of IPO probability or minimal conviction from traders given the $0 volume in 24 hours and just $27 open interest.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme asymmetry with a 240.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus 32.9% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of IPO probability or minimal conviction from traders given the $0 volume in 24 hours and just $27 open interest. The 9¢ spread is substantial relative to the 28¢ price, and with 410 days to expiry, there's ample time for AppsFlyer's situation to evolve, though the neutral regime and minimal price movement (28¢ to 27¢) indicate the market lacks directional momentum. The Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggests moderate binary event risk, making this more suitable for conviction traders than liquidity-seeking participants.
Resolution rules
If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27JUN01 yes 100