What is the current probability for "When will Beast Industries IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2027. 374 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Beast Industries IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 292.5% and 32.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Beast Industries IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Beast Industries IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that When will Beast Industries IPO?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 288.8% implied yield for Yes bets versus 32.1% for No, suggesting either deep skepticism about a Beast Industries IPO or significant mispricing given the 379-day timeframe.

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26¢

Bid/Ask 25/26¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $5·OI $796.28·Closes May 1, 2027·374d remaining

KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-27MAY01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 288.8% implied yield for Yes bets versus 32.1% for No, suggesting either deep skepticism about a Beast Industries IPO or significant mispricing given the 379-day timeframe. The $0 24-hour volume and modest $772 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The 3 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as binary IPO outcomes can experience sharp repricing near the May 2027 deadline.

Resolution rules

If Beast Industries confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 292.5%

IY (No) 32.5%

Adj IY 146%

CRI 3

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	292.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	32.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	146%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:10 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-27MAY01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →