What is the current probability for "When will Glean IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on August 1, 2026. 101 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Glean IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 11647.1% and 11.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Glean IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Glean IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that When will Glean IPO?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite a 9¢ spread and only $155 open interest.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 3/12¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $155·Closes Aug 1, 2026·101d remaining

KXIPOGLEAN-26AUG01

7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime

5¢3¢ current

Apr 113¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite a 9¢ spread and only $155 open interest. The 14¢ price implies just a 14% probability of a Glean IPO by August 2026, yet the Yes side offers an implausible 11,119% annualized yield, suggesting the contract is severely mispriced relative to realistic IPO odds for a well-funded enterprise software company. The recent sharp decline from 5¢ to 3¢ over seven days, combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 32, indicates potential for sudden repricing if market participants return or if Glean announces IPO plans.

Resolution rules

If Glean confirms an IPO before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 11647.1%

IY (No) 11.1%

Adj IY 5824%

CRI 32

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	11647.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5824%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:31 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOGLEAN-26AUG01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →