What is the current probability for "When will Glean IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 1, 2026. 40 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Glean IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 17196.9% and 47.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Glean IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Glean IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that When will Glean IPO?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $126 open interest, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 4¢ spread.

██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

5¢

Bid/Ask 0/3¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $126·Closes Jun 1, 2026·40d remaining

KXIPOGLEAN-26JUN01

7-day price4 snapshots · 2 regime

5¢5¢ current

Apr 144¢Apr 14

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $126 open interest, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 4¢ spread. The astronomical 15,363.7% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects the low probability and short 45-day timeframe rather than genuine market conviction, while the high Cliff Risk Index of 19 suggests significant binary outcome risk near expiration. The modest 1¢ price movement over seven days indicates minimal trading activity and low confidence in either outcome, making this an unsuitable market for serious capital allocation.

Resolution rules

If Glean confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17196.9%

IY (No) 47.6%

Adj IY 8598%

CRI 19

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	17196.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	47.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8598%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:10 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOGLEAN-26JUN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →