When will Glean IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that When will Glean IPO?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $150 open interest, making the 18% price unreliable as a probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $150 open interest, making the 18% price unreliable as a probability estimate. The 9¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the contract value, and the 2900% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the low price rather than genuine expected returns given the binary nature of IPO timing. With 167 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this contract carries significant execution risk, particularly if Glean's IPO plans materialize suddenly—the thin market would struggle to absorb meaningful position changes.
Resolution rules
If Glean confirms an IPO before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOGLEAN-26OCT01 yes 100