What is the current probability for "When will OpenAI IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 65¢ (65% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will OpenAI IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 62.3% and 180.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will OpenAI IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will OpenAI IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that When will OpenAI IPO?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 65% probability of OpenAI IPO by April 2027, but the extremely thin $4 daily volume and wide 6¢ spread suggest low conviction and potential illiquidity risk on larger positions.

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65¢

Bid/Ask 63/69¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $1,623.85·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXIPOOPENAI-27APR01

7-day price729 snapshots · 3 regime

67¢63¢ current

Apr 1063¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing a 65% probability of OpenAI IPO by April 2027, but the extremely thin $4 daily volume and wide 6¢ spread suggest low conviction and potential illiquidity risk on larger positions. The stark asymmetry in implied yields—56.3% for Yes versus 194.1% for No—indicates the No side is significantly underpriced relative to risk, though the 282% realized volatility and 3.75 vol ratio suggest this market experiences sharp, unpredictable swings. With 349 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position with limited market depth rather than a well-calibrated probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 62.3%

IY (No) 180.5%

Adj IY 180%

CRI 2

RV 113%

VR 1.46

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	62.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	180.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	180%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	113%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.46	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:11:17 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOOPENAI-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →