When will OpenAI IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that When will OpenAI IPO?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a roughly even-odds IPO by year-end 2026, but the 147% annualized yield and extreme 229% realized volatility suggest substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing given the binary nature of the event.
Analysis
The market is pricing a roughly even-odds IPO by year-end 2026, but the 147% annualized yield and extreme 229% realized volatility suggest substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing given the binary nature of the event. Volume is thin at $6.88 in 24 hours despite $11k open interest, and the 1.88 vol ratio indicates options are pricing significantly higher uncertainty than recent price swings have realized, pointing to elevated tail risk around major news catalysts. With 259 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 0.8 events per hour, this market appears to be pricing in meaningful probability of a near-term announcement, though the neutral regime score and recent 1¢ decline suggest consensus hasn't shifted decisively in either direction.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOOPENAI-27JAN01 yes 100