When will OpenAI IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that When will OpenAI IPO?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a 74% probability of an OpenAI IPO by mid-2027, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $2,010 open interest suggest minimal liquidity and conviction behind this price.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 74% probability of an OpenAI IPO by mid-2027, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $2,010 open interest suggest minimal liquidity and conviction behind this price. The stark 267% implied yield on the No side versus 29.7% on the Yes side indicates the market may be overweighting the Yes outcome, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity for contrarians willing to bet against an IPO at current prices. With 410 days to expiry and a modest 4¢ spread, this appears to be a low-activity market where price discovery is limited.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOOPENAI-27JUN01 yes 100