Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 14¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity despite the contract's imminent expiration in 10 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 14¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity despite the contract's imminent expiration in 10 days. The price has surged dramatically from 23¢ to 75¢ over seven days, yet the 0% current price contradicts this movement data—likely indicating a data lag or display error that warrants verification before any position. The astronomical implied yields (1171% for Yes, 10540% for No) are artifacts of near-zero prices and minimal liquidity rather than genuine opportunities, and with resolution approaching, traders should expect significant slippage and potential difficulty exiting positions.
Resolution rules
If Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 is above -0.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T-0.1 yes 100