Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 15¢ spread, suggesting no active traders are willing to commit capital at either extreme.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 15¢ spread, suggesting no active traders are willing to commit capital at either extreme. The price has surged 225% over seven days from 24¢ to 78¢, yet the 0¢ current price indicates a dramatic reversal or data error, making the 773.7% implied yield on Yes highly unreliable given the market's near-expiration status (13 days) and lack of liquidity to execute trades. The cliff risk index of 4 and unresolved resolution text suggest this market may have technical issues or pending clarification before the April 30 close.
Resolution rules
If Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 is above -0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T-0.2 yes 100